The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Ajax (Netherlands) and Inter (Italy) will take place on September 17 at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam. Ajax vs. Inter: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Ajax
The team qualified for the group stage by finishing second in last season's Dutch championship. Ajax will play in the main draw of the Champions League for the first time in three years, having previously participated in the group stage of this European competition for five consecutive seasons. The club's best achievement in the Champions League in the 21st century is reaching the semi-finals in the 2018/19 season. Notably, in their last five matches in this tournament, the Amsterdam team suffered four defeats, conceding 16 goals during this period. Additionally, Ajax has failed to win in their last seven European matches against Italian teams (2 draws, 5 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of their last 6 home matches in the Champions League.
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 90 minutes in 6 of the club's last 8 home encounters in this European competition.
- Ajax has not conceded more than one goal in regular time in 11 of their last 14 home games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Ajax (4-5-1)
Vitezslav Jaros – Anton Goei, Ko Itakura, Juri Bas, Owen Wijndal – Raul Moro, Kian Fitz-Jim, Juri Regeer, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh – Wout Weghorst.
Defender Aaron Bouman and midfielder Branco van den Boomen will not play due to injuries. Midfielder Steven Berghuis may also miss the match due to injury.
Inter
The Milan team finished second in last season's Serie A and received a direct ticket to the Champions League group stage. Inter will participate in the main draw of this European competition for the eighth consecutive season, and in the previous Champions League, the team reached the final, where they suffered a heavy defeat to PSG (0-5). It is worth noting that the club has not won in regular time in their last four matches in this tournament (3 draws, 1 loss) and conceded 13 goals during this period. Additionally, Inter has not lost to Dutch opponents in 13 matches (9 wins, 4 draws).
- The team has not lost in regular time in 9 of their last 11 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 4 draws).
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 90 minutes in 5 of the club's last 7 away matches in this European competition.
- No more than two goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of Milan's last 7 away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Manuel Akanji, Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni – Denzel Dumfries, Petar Sucic, Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, Federico Dimarco – Ange-Yoan Bonny, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Matteo Darmian will miss the match due to injury, and forward Lautaro Martinez's participation is also in doubt.
Referee
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches – 19 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 77;
Average yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 32%.
Ajax vs. Inter: Match Prediction
The Amsterdam team has had mixed success at home in recent Champions League matches, but they have often managed to effectively contain opponents' attacks. In their last 14 home games in this European competition, Ajax has conceded more than one goal in only three matches, and in five instances during this period, the club managed to keep a clean sheet.
Inter impressed with their defensive play in the previous Champions League edition, though they did not show high scoring prowess, only improving in attack during the playoffs. Overall, in their last 11 away matches in this tournament, the team has scored more than one goal in only four matches, failing to find the net twice during this period. Notably, Milan scored a maximum of one goal in encounters with lower-ranked opponents such as Sparta Prague and Young Boys.
I expect a solid defensive performance from Ajax, and my prediction: Inter Individual Total Under 1.5
